FxPro英镑无惊喜

　　欧元：意大利选举在继续，因此投资者还在观察，虽然今天的票站调查有一些迹象，但明天之前结果不会出来。主要焦点就是新联合政府中反对财政紧缩的人能取得多大程度的支持，对于欧元这可以视为负面因素。

　　美元：今天的数据对于美元只有外围的兴趣，而且不太会撼动最近几周出现的好趋势。美元指数现在已接近六个月以来的高点。

　　EUR: Italy continues its election so investors have one eye on this， although results wont start coming through until tomorrow with some indications from exit polls late today. The main focus is the extent to which those against austerity gain a hold in any new coalition government， which would be taken as negative for the single currency.

　　USD: The data today is of only peripheral interest for the dollar and are unlikely to knock the better tone that has emerged in recent weeks. The dollar index is now near 6 months highs.

　　The main surprise with the UK‘s downgrade (by Moody’s) from triple-A was that it took so long. There were strong expectations that it is was likely to happen， not least because the other main agency (S&P) has had the UK on negative outlook since December and appear to be waiting for the budget announcement next month before passing judgement. Sterling weakened late on Friday and during the early part of the Asia session but has since recovered a little. But this has come on top of a pile of other sterling negative factors in recent weeks， so there remain few (if any) reasons to be cheerful on the UK currency. That said， bear in mind that sterling looks very over-sold， especially vs. the dollar， so risk of some short-covering activity remains， at least in the short-term.

　　英国从三A降级(穆迪为之)让人最惊异的就是时间花得太多。我们曾强烈预感降级的来到，不仅是因为自12月以来其他主要机构(标普)对英国的期望是负面的，而且预感到在作出降级评判前似乎是在等待下个月的预算声明。周五晚些时候以及亚洲交易期的早些时候，英镑疲软，不过随后又恢复了一些。但最近几周这件事情的背后还有一堆针对英镑的其他负面因素，因此目前英镑方面几乎没有(如果能有的话)令人高兴的东西。因此，要记住英镑看起来是过卖了，特别是针对美元，因此空头回补有风险，至少在近期内。

　　EUR:Weaker on Friday owing to the fact that banks repaid less than expected of long-term loans to the ECB， keeping market interest rates lower and nudging the euro down. The European Commission forecasts reminded the market that the Eurozone as a whole will likely contract in the current year.

　　JPY: Weaker during the Asia session， USDJPY opening higher and making a new high for the year at 94.77. Expectations are growing that Kuroda will nominated as the new central bank governor. Hes seen as friendly towards further measures to kick-start the economy from the Bank of Japan， which would also push the yen lower.

　　GBP: Fridays credit rating downgrade is the main talking point. Against the US dollar， the 1.50 level is the main focus on the downside， whilst 0.88 is in sight on EURGBP. Cable especially is looking very over-sold and at risk of some short-covering activity.

　　欧元：周五疲软，原因是众多银行给欧洲央行的还贷少于预期，从而让市场利率走低并压低欧元。欧盟委员会的预测让市场知道欧元区作为一个整体在今年可能会收缩。

　　日元：亚洲交易期内疲软，美元日元开盘走高并达到今年的高点94.77。越来越多人预期黑田东彦(亚洲开发银行行长)会被任命为央行新行长。人们认为他更倾向于在日本银行任内施行进一步措施来提振经济，这也会推低日元。

　　英镑：周五发生的信用评级降级是谈论的主要焦点。针对美元，1.50这个水平是下行方向的主要焦点。而欧元英镑方面0.88也进入我们的视野。特别是英镑美元汇率看起来过卖，导致空头回补有风险。

　　TIMING THE STERLING BOUNCE

　　为英镑反弹计时

　　In an otherwise quiet morning in FX markets it is sterling that is the talking point. The main issue appears to be how far up it can go before is starts going down again. The argument for the first point is just the extent of short positioning. The weekly CFTC， which shows the balance of non-commercial short positioning on US currency futures， reported GBP short positions at a 1 year extreme.

　　外汇市场这个不平静的上午英镑成了谈论的焦点。主要的问题看起来就是再次走低之前英镑还能走多高。首要的争论是做空的程度。美国商品期货交易委员会的每周数据发布(美国货币期货市场非商业做空的平衡程度)显示英镑空头正处于一年以来的极点。

　　We have to go back to mid-March 2010 to see the last time sterling fell this much vs. the dollar over a 2 month period. Back then， we saw a 5 big figure up-move before the downtrend was re-established. Thereafter， cable touched 1.4231 in the summer of 2010， in other words nearly 8 cents lower vs. the mid-March level. Momentum indications (daily RSI) also suggest oversold levels on cable at present， with the (14 day) RSI at levels last seen in June and previously March 2010.

　　我们必须回到2010年三月中旬来看看上一次英镑针对美元在两个月之内下跌如此之多的情况。那个时候，我们发现，在下降趋势确立之前有达到五个大数的上扬行为。此后，英镑美元汇率在2010年夏季达到了1.4231，换句话说就是比三月中旬的水平低了8分。趋势指标(每日相对强弱指数)也显示出当前英镑美元方面出现过卖，(14天)相对强弱指数也处于今年6月和2010年3月的水平。

　　But this is all offset against the fact that the fundamental backdrop to sterling continues to be weak. The main rationale for the ratings downgrade was the disappointing growth outlook， set against the backdrop of continued austerity by the coalition government. At the same time， inflation is seen above target for more than 2 years ahead and the Bank of England has admitted they are powerless to stop it. Next major upside resistance on cable is seen at 1.5321 (Fridays high).

　　但这种情况也抵消了英镑继续疲软这个基本事实。降级的主要理由是令人失望的增长前景，这也与联合政府继续财政紧缩的背景相悖。同时，通胀有两年位于目标之上，而英格兰银行也承认他们无法阻止。英镑美元汇率下一个上行阻力将会在1.5321处(周五的高点).

　　亚洲外汇网授权转载